Since the war between Russia and Ukraine began on February 24, the global financial market has been volatile, and Taiwan's stock exchange has also been affected. However, the central bank pointed out in its report to the Legislative Yuan that,

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a moderate impact on Taiwan's economic growth, and the financial impact is still controllable, but we should worry that it will aggravate domestic inflationary pressure,

It is estimated that the soaring oil price may increase the inflation rate by 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points this year and reduce the economic growth rate by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points.

Inflation data soared in Russia Ukraine war

The central bank warned that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia by various countries affected the supply and export of materials, resulting in a significant rise in the prices of energy, metals and grains,

If the situation continues, it may trigger "imported inflation" and further aggravate the problem of high global inflation.

Global oil prices and raw materials have risen simultaneously, inflation data in various countries have soared, and people in all walks of life are worried about the recurrence of stagnant inflation in the 1970s, which has brought about a huge legacy of economic recession and increased unemployment;

The general accounting office announced yesterday that the consumer price index (CPI) increased at an annual rate of 2.36% in February, exceeding 2% for the seventh consecutive month, and inflationary pressure continued to rise.

Is Taiwan moving towards stagnant inflation? Yang Jinlong said in the legislative yuan yesterday that China's consumer price index (CPI) was 1.96% last year,

It is quite stable compared with other countries; Compared with 3.52% during the global financial crisis in 2008, inflation is very low. Of course, prices this year are affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine,

But there should be no stagnant inflation.

 

 

 

 

Scholar: export-oriented economy has to be cautious

The general accounting office also denied the suspicion of stagnant inflation, and said that this year's economic growth rate has been revised up to 4.42%, and the economic growth is good, indicating that there is no pressure of economic stagnation.

Scholars warned that investment and consumption would be affected in the second half of the year when the United States entered the cycle of raising interest rates. As an export-oriented economy, Taiwan had to be cautious.

The central bank will go to the Finance Committee of the Legislative Yuan on Thursday to make a business report. A written report was sent to the legislative yuan yesterday. In the report, the central bank said that the war between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by various countries on Russia,

It will impact global economic activities, further push up inflation, and lead to the intensification of financial market shocks. Although the GDP of Russia and Ukraine accounts for only about 2% of the world,

However, the EU is highly dependent on Russian natural gas supply. If the war is delayed, the energy supply will be blocked, which may affect the industrial production and consumption confidence of the EU and push up the downward risk of economic growth.

Central bank: my exposure is small and controllable

However, the central bank said that Taiwan's trade links with Russia are low, the impact on Taiwan's economy is moderate, Taiwan's exposure to Russia and Ukraine is small, and Taiwan's economic fundamentals are good,

Moreover, the sufficient foreign exchange reserve helps to maintain the stability of the new Taiwan dollar exchange rate, and the impact on the financial market is still controllable.

The central bank also believes that the current Russian financial system is difficult to operate and the risk of debt default has increased significantly. If countries further strengthen sanctions against Russia,

It will trigger a new wave of turbulence in the international financial market, especially the European market, which will bear the brunt. We need to continue to pay attention to development,

Central banks will also pay close attention to the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on economic activities.