Gold prices continued to fall in the past 24 hours; Gold traders focused on the University of Michigan consumer confidence index report; Xau/usd gold prices fell below the key trend line since August.

Gold price trend forecast: continued decline, focusing on the U.S. consumer confidence index report

The trend of gold has been weak in the past 24 hours, and the gold price has continued its downward trend since the end of February. The strong US dollar continues to put pressure on gold, and the US inflation report this week, which exceeded expectations, continues to benefit the US dollar.

The fact that the world is tightening monetary policy is bad for gold, because holding gold is essentially unprofitable. In addition, the global phenomenon that gold is denominated in dollars also makes gold highly sensitive to the increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.

For the rest of the week, gold prices will focus on the latest U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence index survey report. The initial value of the U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May is expected to drop to 64.0 from 65.2.

It is expected that the initial one-year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan will rise slightly to 5.5% from the previous 5.4% in the same period. Changes in inflation expectations may make the Federal Reserve remain vigilant.

Technical analysis of gold price trend

From the daily chart, the gold price has fallen below the upward trend line that began in August. The confirmation of further decline will release ominous signs. Pay close attention to the short-term support, that is, the 1818 line of 100% Fibo extension level. On the other hand, if the gold price returns to the trend line, the author's attention will turn to the 20 day simple moving average.

Ig customer sentiment indicator: bearish gold

Ig customer sentiment indicator (retail position report) shows that about 84% of retail investors hold net long positions in gold. Ig customer sentiment indicator is usually used as a reverse indicator, and retail investors' bullishness means that the gold price may fall further. Short exposure decreased by 7.03% and 9.59% respectively compared with yesterday and last week.

In view of this, combined with current and recent position changes, Ig customer sentiment indicators released a strong bearish signal on gold.