Executive Summary:

1. Fundamentals: the main factors affecting the fluctuation of gold are in serious conflict, so it is advisable to wait for the market to digest it

2. Technical trend: the medium and long-term prospects are good, and the short-term rebound is blocked

Fundamentals: the time for big fluctuations is not ripe

The main factors affecting the fluctuation of gold price are still the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the yield of US bonds and the performance of the US dollar.

After the interest rate resolution in May, the Fed began to moderate its language on raising interest rates. On Monday, Atlanta Fed chairman Bostick bluntly said that 25 basis points would be taken into account if inflation eased after a continuous 50 basis points increase in interest rates; The minutes of FOMC meeting in May released overnight are also regular.

Such a change in the attitude of the Federal Reserve may be related to the chain reaction triggered by sanctions against Russia. At present, investors are cautious about the geopolitical risks to the European and even global economy, the food crisis and high raw material prices, and believe that there is a possibility of recession in the United States and the world economy. After curbing inflation, the Federal Reserve still hopes to leave room for uncertain prospects and emergencies.

The expectation of the Federal Reserve to slow down and raise interest rates should be beneficial to gold. The recent decline in U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar also provide a rebound opportunity for gold prices. However, the stagnation of the gold trend is obviously abnormal. The market may still need time to digest some known or unknown expectations. If the US stock market hits the bottom again, the return of risk sentiment may become a strong enemy of the gold rebound.

Technical aspect: maintain the long, long and short space pattern

Generally, shocks indicate a lack of guidance, and gold is a variety that brings shocks to the extreme.

The daily chart shows that $1800 is still on the upward trend line of $1160 in 2018, indicating that the upward trend has not been destroyed. If the gold price gradually steps on the trend line, once it breaks through $1900 or expands the rise again, it will rush above $2000. Supported by US $1800-1780, it is still dominated by the buying strategy. If it is confirmed to fall below $1800 in the future, it will turn to the downward trend. When it is short held against resistance, there is a huge space below.

The 240 minute chart shows that the rebound of gold is blocked by the 1867 line, which is 38.2% of the 1998-1786 US dollars. If blocked by 38.2%, it may fall back to the starting point or remain low.

At present, the gold price is in 1867 (38.2%) -1836 (23.6%) consolidation, mainly under pressure. If it falls below the 1836 line, the resistance intensity of 1867 will be further confirmed, and short-term shorts may hit the gold back to the $1800 level. If gold holds steady at $1836, once it breaks above $1867, it is expected to reach $1880-19001900, which will attract overall attention.

From the perspective of trend, 1800 is expected to form a double bottom after withstanding the second decline, which is conducive to restarting the long trend in the future. The support levels of 1810, 1800 and 1790 deserve attention.